Henry Cuellar

In the 2024 House race for TX-28, Henry Cuellar (D) defeated Jay Furman (R) 52.8% to 47.2%. Henry Cuellar received 125,490 votes compared to 112,117 for Jay Furman, a 5.6-point margin that indicates a genuinely contested race.

As the incumbent, Henry Cuellar benefited from name recognition, established constituent services, and the roughly 2-3 point advantage that sitting members typically enjoy. The 2024 presidential election drove higher voter turnout, which can help or hurt down-ballot candidates depending on the top of the ticket. This seat will likely stay on party watch lists as potentially competitive in future cycles.

In the 2022 House race for TX-28, Henry Cuellar (D) defeated Cassy Garcia (R) 56.6% to 43.4%. Henry Cuellar received 93,803 votes compared to 71,778 for Cassy Garcia, a comfortable 13.3-point margin indicating a moderately safe district.

As the incumbent, Henry Cuellar benefited from name recognition, established constituent services, and the roughly 2-3 point advantage that sitting members typically enjoy. As a Democrat, Henry Cuellar won despite the historical midterm penalty against the president's party (Democrat Biden was in office).

In the 2020 House race for TX-28, Henry Cuellar (D) won with 58.3% of the vote, defeating Sandra Whitten (R) who received 39.0%. A third candidate also appeared on the ballot. Henry Cuellar's 19.3-point advantage over the runner-up confirmed a comfortable win.

As the incumbent, Henry Cuellar benefited from name recognition, established constituent services, and the roughly 2-3 point advantage that sitting members typically enjoy. The 2020 presidential election drove higher voter turnout, which can help or hurt down-ballot candidates depending on the top of the ticket.

In the 2018 House race for TX-28, Henry Cuellar (D) defeated Arthur Thomas Iv (L) 84.4% to 15.6%. Henry Cuellar received 117,494 votes compared to 21,732 for Arthur Thomas Iv, a dominant 68.8-point margin reflecting a safely partisan district.

As the incumbent, Henry Cuellar benefited from name recognition, established constituent services, and the roughly 2-3 point advantage that sitting members typically enjoy. As a Democrat, Henry Cuellar benefited from the historical midterm penalty against the president's party — with a Republican in the White House, the opposition typically gains seats.

In the 2016 House race for TX-28, Henry Cuellar (D) won with 66.2% of the vote, defeating Zeffen Hardin (R) who received 31.3%. A third candidate also appeared on the ballot. Henry Cuellar's 34.9-point advantage over the runner-up confirmed a comfortable win.

As the incumbent, Henry Cuellar benefited from name recognition, established constituent services, and the roughly 2-3 point advantage that sitting members typically enjoy. The 2016 presidential election drove higher voter turnout, which can help or hurt down-ballot candidates depending on the top of the ticket.

In the 2014 House race for TX-28, Henry Cuellar (D) won with 82.1% of the vote, defeating William Aikens (L) who received 13.3%. A third candidate also appeared on the ballot. Henry Cuellar's 68.8-point advantage over the runner-up confirmed a comfortable win.

As the incumbent, Henry Cuellar benefited from name recognition, established constituent services, and the roughly 2-3 point advantage that sitting members typically enjoy. As a Democrat, Henry Cuellar won despite the historical midterm penalty against the president's party (Democrat Obama was in office).

In the 2012 House race for TX-28, Henry Cuellar (D) won with 67.9% of the vote, defeating William R. Hayward (R) who received 29.8%. 2 additional candidates split the remaining vote. Henry Cuellar's 38.1-point advantage over the runner-up confirmed a comfortable win.

This was an open-seat race. Open seats typically attract stronger candidates and heavier spending from both parties. The 2012 presidential election drove higher voter turnout, which can help or hurt down-ballot candidates depending on the top of the ticket.