Neal P. Dunn
RRepublicanFL-2 · Representative
In the 2024 House race for FL-2, Neal Dunn (R) defeated Yen Bailey (D) 61.6% to 38.4%. Neal Dunn received 247,957 votes compared to 154,323 for Yen Bailey, a dominant 23.3-point margin reflecting a safely partisan district.
As the incumbent, Neal Dunn benefited from name recognition, established constituent services, and the roughly 2-3 point advantage that sitting members typically enjoy. The 2024 presidential election drove higher voter turnout, which can help or hurt down-ballot candidates depending on the top of the ticket.
In the 2022 House race for FL-2, Neal Dunn (R) defeated Al Lawson (D) 59.8% to 40.2%. Neal Dunn received 180,236 votes compared to 121,153 for Al Lawson, a comfortable 19.6-point margin indicating a moderately safe district.
As the incumbent, Neal Dunn benefited from name recognition, established constituent services, and the roughly 2-3 point advantage that sitting members typically enjoy. As a Republican, Neal Dunn benefited from the historical midterm penalty against the president's party — with a Democrat in the White House, the opposition typically gains seats.
In the 2020 House race for FL-2, Neal Dunn (R) defeated Kim O'Connor (W) 97.9% to 2.1%. Neal Dunn received 305,337 votes compared to 6,662 for Kim O'Connor, a dominant 95.7-point margin reflecting a safely partisan district.
This was an open-seat race. Open seats typically attract stronger candidates and heavier spending from both parties. The 2020 presidential election drove higher voter turnout, which can help or hurt down-ballot candidates depending on the top of the ticket. The wide margin suggests this district is firmly in the Republican column for the foreseeable future.
In the 2016 House race for FL-02, Neal Dunn (R) won with 67.3% of the vote, defeating Walter Dartland (D) who received 29.9%. A third candidate also appeared on the ballot. Neal Dunn's 37.4-point advantage over the runner-up confirmed a comfortable win.
This race flipped the seat from Democrat to Republican. Gwen Graham (D) held the seat previously but either retired or lost in a primary. Party flips at the seat level are relatively rare and often signal shifting district dynamics. The 2016 presidential election drove higher voter turnout, which can help or hurt down-ballot candidates depending on the top of the ticket.