Laura Gillen

In the 2024 House race for NY-4, Laura A. Gillen (D) won with 50.8% of the vote, defeating Anthony P. D'Esposito (R) who received 45.2%. 5 additional candidates split the remaining vote. Laura A. Gillen's 5.6-point lead over the runner-up showed solid but not overwhelming support.

Laura A. Gillen defeated the incumbent Anthony P. D'Esposito (R), which is a significant political event — most incumbents win re-election by wide margins. This was a general election upset. The 2024 presidential election drove higher voter turnout, which can help or hurt down-ballot candidates depending on the top of the ticket. This seat will likely stay on party watch lists as potentially competitive in future cycles.

In the 2022 House race for NY-4, Anthony P. D'Esposito (R) won with 47.6% of the vote, defeating Laura A. Gillen (D) who received 48.2%. 4 additional candidates split the remaining vote. The -0.6-point margin made this one of the more competitive races of the cycle.

This race flipped the seat from Democrat to Republican. Kathleen Rice (D) held the seat previously but either retired or lost in a primary. Party flips at the seat level are relatively rare and often signal shifting district dynamics. As a Republican, Anthony P. D'Esposito benefited from the historical midterm penalty against the president's party — with a Democrat in the White House, the opposition typically gains seats. Given the narrow margin, this seat is likely to remain competitive and attract heavy investment in the next cycle.