Young Kim

In the 2024 House race for CA-40, Young Kim (R) defeated Joe Kerr (D) 55.3% to 44.7%. Young Kim received 211,998 votes compared to 171,637 for Joe Kerr, a comfortable 10.5-point margin indicating a moderately safe district.

As the incumbent, Young Kim benefited from name recognition, established constituent services, and the roughly 2-3 point advantage that sitting members typically enjoy. The 2024 presidential election drove higher voter turnout, which can help or hurt down-ballot candidates depending on the top of the ticket.

In the 2022 House race for CA-40, Young Kim (R) defeated Asif Mahmood (D) 56.8% to 43.2%. Young Kim received 161,589 votes compared to 122,722 for Asif Mahmood, a comfortable 13.7-point margin indicating a moderately safe district.

This race flipped the seat from Democrat to Republican. Lucille Roybal-Allard (D) held the seat previously but either retired or lost in a primary. Party flips at the seat level are relatively rare and often signal shifting district dynamics. As a Republican, Young Kim benefited from the historical midterm penalty against the president's party — with a Democrat in the White House, the opposition typically gains seats.