Nick LaLota

In the 2024 House race for NY-1, Nicholas J. LaLota (R) won with 49.0% of the vote, defeating John P. Avlon (D) who received 44.3%. 5 additional candidates split the remaining vote. The 4.7-point margin made this one of the more competitive races of the cycle.

As the incumbent, Nicholas J. LaLota benefited from name recognition, established constituent services, and the roughly 2-3 point advantage that sitting members typically enjoy. The 2024 presidential election drove higher voter turnout, which can help or hurt down-ballot candidates depending on the top of the ticket. This seat will likely stay on party watch lists as potentially competitive in future cycles.

In the 2022 House race for NY-1, Nicholas J. LaLota (R) won with 48.3% of the vote, defeating Bridget Fleming (D) who received 42.4%. 5 additional candidates split the remaining vote. Nicholas J. LaLota's 5.9-point lead over the runner-up showed solid but not overwhelming support.

This was an open-seat race with no incumbent running — Lee M. Zeldin (R) previously held the seat. Open seats typically attract stronger candidates and heavier spending from both parties. As a Republican, Nicholas J. LaLota benefited from the historical midterm penalty against the president's party — with a Democrat in the White House, the opposition typically gains seats. This seat will likely stay on party watch lists as potentially competitive in future cycles.