Josh Riley

In the 2024 House race for NY-19, Josh Riley (D) won with 45.1% of the vote, defeating Marcus Molinaro (R) who received 43.5%. 5 additional candidates split the remaining vote. The 1.6-point margin made this one of the more competitive races of the cycle.

Josh Riley defeated the incumbent Marcus Molinaro (R), which is a significant political event — most incumbents win re-election by wide margins. This was a general election upset. The 2024 presidential election drove higher voter turnout, which can help or hurt down-ballot candidates depending on the top of the ticket. Given the narrow margin, this seat is likely to remain competitive and attract heavy investment in the next cycle.

In the 2022 House race for NY-19, Marcus Molinaro (R) won with 45.2% of the vote, defeating Josh Riley (D) who received 43.3%. 5 additional candidates split the remaining vote. The 1.9-point margin made this one of the more competitive races of the cycle.

This race flipped the seat from Democrat to Republican. Antonio Delgado (D) held the seat previously but either retired or lost in a primary. Party flips at the seat level are relatively rare and often signal shifting district dynamics. As a Republican, Marcus Molinaro benefited from the historical midterm penalty against the president's party — with a Democrat in the White House, the opposition typically gains seats. Given the narrow margin, this seat is likely to remain competitive and attract heavy investment in the next cycle.