Paul Tonko

In the 2024 House race for NY-20, Paul D. Tonko (D) won with 54.4% of the vote, defeating Kevin M. Waltz (R) who received 33.1%. 5 additional candidates split the remaining vote. Paul D. Tonko's 21.3-point advantage over the runner-up confirmed a comfortable win.

As the incumbent, Paul D. Tonko benefited from name recognition, established constituent services, and the roughly 2-3 point advantage that sitting members typically enjoy. The 2024 presidential election drove higher voter turnout, which can help or hurt down-ballot candidates depending on the top of the ticket.

In the 2022 House race for NY-20, Paul D. Tonko (D) won with 50.1% of the vote, defeating Elizabeth L. Joy (R) who received 38.0%. 5 additional candidates split the remaining vote. Paul D. Tonko's 12.0-point lead over the runner-up showed solid but not overwhelming support.

As the incumbent, Paul D. Tonko benefited from name recognition, established constituent services, and the roughly 2-3 point advantage that sitting members typically enjoy. As a Democrat, Paul D. Tonko won despite the historical midterm penalty against the president's party (Democrat Biden was in office).

In the 2020 House race for NY-20, Paul D. Tonko (D) won with 54.0% of the vote, defeating Elizabeth L. Joy (R) who received 33.6%. 7 additional candidates split the remaining vote. Paul D. Tonko's 20.4-point advantage over the runner-up confirmed a comfortable win.

As the incumbent, Paul D. Tonko benefited from name recognition, established constituent services, and the roughly 2-3 point advantage that sitting members typically enjoy. The 2020 presidential election drove higher voter turnout, which can help or hurt down-ballot candidates depending on the top of the ticket.

In the 2018 House race for NY-20, Paul D. Tonko (D) defeated Joe Vitollo (R) 60.6% to 33.5%. Paul D. Tonko received 161,330 votes compared to 89,058 for Joe Vitollo, a dominant 27.2-point margin reflecting a safely partisan district.

This was an open-seat race. Open seats typically attract stronger candidates and heavier spending from both parties. As a Democrat, Paul D. Tonko benefited from the historical midterm penalty against the president's party — with a Republican in the White House, the opposition typically gains seats.

In the 2016 House race for NY-20, Blank Vote (O) won with 5.5% of the vote, defeating Joe Vitollo (c) who received 4.8%. 3 additional candidates split the remaining vote. The 0.8-point margin made this one of the more competitive races of the cycle.

This was an open-seat race. Open seats typically attract stronger candidates and heavier spending from both parties. The 2016 presidential election drove higher voter turnout, which can help or hurt down-ballot candidates depending on the top of the ticket.

In the 2014 House race for NY-20, James M. Fischer (c) won with 8.2% of the vote, defeating Paul Tonko (w) who received 5.3%. A third candidate also appeared on the ballot. The 2.8-point margin made this one of the more competitive races of the cycle.

This was an open-seat race. Open seats typically attract stronger candidates and heavier spending from both parties. As a conservative, James M. Fischer benefited from the historical midterm penalty against the president's party — with a Democrat in the White House, the opposition typically gains seats.

In the 2012 House race for NY-20, Blank Vote/void Vote/scattering (O) won with 6.5% of the vote, defeating Robert J. Dieterich (c) who received 4.6%. A third candidate also appeared on the ballot. The 1.8-point margin made this one of the more competitive races of the cycle.

This was an open-seat race. Open seats typically attract stronger candidates and heavier spending from both parties. The 2012 presidential election drove higher voter turnout, which can help or hurt down-ballot candidates depending on the top of the ticket.