Ann Wagner

In the 2024 House race for MO-2, Ann Wagner (R) won with 54.5% of the vote, defeating Ray Hartmann (D) who received 42.5%. 2 additional candidates split the remaining vote. Ann Wagner's 12.0-point lead over the runner-up showed solid but not overwhelming support.

As the incumbent, Ann Wagner benefited from name recognition, established constituent services, and the roughly 2-3 point advantage that sitting members typically enjoy. The 2024 presidential election drove higher voter turnout, which can help or hurt down-ballot candidates depending on the top of the ticket.

In the 2022 House race for MO-2, Ann Wagner (R) won with 54.9% of the vote, defeating Trish Gunby (D) who received 43.0%. A third candidate also appeared on the ballot. Ann Wagner's 11.8-point lead over the runner-up showed solid but not overwhelming support.

As the incumbent, Ann Wagner benefited from name recognition, established constituent services, and the roughly 2-3 point advantage that sitting members typically enjoy. As a Republican, Ann Wagner benefited from the historical midterm penalty against the president's party — with a Democrat in the White House, the opposition typically gains seats.

In the 2020 House race for MO-2, Ann Wagner (R) won with 51.9% of the vote, defeating Jill Schupp (D) who received 45.5%. 2 additional candidates split the remaining vote. Ann Wagner's 6.4-point lead over the runner-up showed solid but not overwhelming support.

This was an open-seat race. Open seats typically attract stronger candidates and heavier spending from both parties. The 2020 presidential election drove higher voter turnout, which can help or hurt down-ballot candidates depending on the top of the ticket. This seat will likely stay on party watch lists as potentially competitive in future cycles.

In the 2018 House race for MO-02, Ann Wagner (R) won with 51.2% of the vote, defeating Cort Vanostran (D) who received 47.2%. 2 additional candidates split the remaining vote. The 4.0-point margin made this one of the more competitive races of the cycle.

As the incumbent, Ann Wagner benefited from name recognition, established constituent services, and the roughly 2-3 point advantage that sitting members typically enjoy. As a Republican, Ann Wagner won despite the historical midterm penalty against the president's party (Republican Trump was in office).

In the 2016 House race for MO-02, Ann Wagner (R) won with 58.5% of the vote, defeating Bill Otto (D) who received 37.7%. 2 additional candidates split the remaining vote. Ann Wagner's 20.9-point advantage over the runner-up confirmed a comfortable win.

As the incumbent, Ann Wagner benefited from name recognition, established constituent services, and the roughly 2-3 point advantage that sitting members typically enjoy. The 2016 presidential election drove higher voter turnout, which can help or hurt down-ballot candidates depending on the top of the ticket.

In the 2014 House race for MO-02, Ann Wagner (R) won with 64.1% of the vote, defeating Arthur Lieber (D) who received 32.6%. A third candidate also appeared on the ballot. Ann Wagner's 31.5-point advantage over the runner-up confirmed a comfortable win.

As the incumbent, Ann Wagner benefited from name recognition, established constituent services, and the roughly 2-3 point advantage that sitting members typically enjoy. As a Republican, Ann Wagner benefited from the historical midterm penalty against the president's party — with a Democrat in the White House, the opposition typically gains seats.

In the 2012 House race for MO-02, Ann Wagner (R) won with 60.1% of the vote, defeating Glenn Koenen (D) who received 37.1%. 2 additional candidates split the remaining vote. Ann Wagner's 23.0-point advantage over the runner-up confirmed a comfortable win.

This was an open-seat race. Open seats typically attract stronger candidates and heavier spending from both parties. The 2012 presidential election drove higher voter turnout, which can help or hurt down-ballot candidates depending on the top of the ticket.