Julia Brownley

In the 2024 House race for CA-26, Julia Brownley (D) defeated Michael Koslow (R) 56.0% to 44.0%. Julia Brownley received 187,393 votes compared to 146,913 for Michael Koslow, a comfortable 12.1-point margin indicating a moderately safe district.

As the incumbent, Julia Brownley benefited from name recognition, established constituent services, and the roughly 2-3 point advantage that sitting members typically enjoy. The 2024 presidential election drove higher voter turnout, which can help or hurt down-ballot candidates depending on the top of the ticket.

In the 2022 House race for CA-26, Julia Brownley (D) defeated Matt Jacobs (R) 54.5% to 45.5%. Julia Brownley received 134,575 votes compared to 112,214 for Matt Jacobs, a 9.1-point margin that indicates a genuinely contested race.

As the incumbent, Julia Brownley benefited from name recognition, established constituent services, and the roughly 2-3 point advantage that sitting members typically enjoy. As a Democrat, Julia Brownley won despite the historical midterm penalty against the president's party (Democrat Biden was in office). This seat will likely stay on party watch lists as potentially competitive in future cycles.

In the 2020 House race for CA-26, Julia Brownley (D) defeated Ronda Baldwin-Kennedy (R) 60.6% to 39.4%. Julia Brownley received 208,856 votes compared to 135,877 for Ronda Baldwin-Kennedy, a dominant 21.2-point margin reflecting a safely partisan district.

As the incumbent, Julia Brownley benefited from name recognition, established constituent services, and the roughly 2-3 point advantage that sitting members typically enjoy. The 2020 presidential election drove higher voter turnout, which can help or hurt down-ballot candidates depending on the top of the ticket.

In the 2018 House race for CA-26, Julia Brownley (D) defeated Antonio Sabato, Jr. (R) 61.9% to 38.1%. Julia Brownley received 316,432 votes compared to 194,420 for Antonio Sabato, Jr., a dominant 23.9-point margin reflecting a safely partisan district.

As the incumbent, Julia Brownley benefited from name recognition, established constituent services, and the roughly 2-3 point advantage that sitting members typically enjoy. As a Democrat, Julia Brownley benefited from the historical midterm penalty against the president's party — with a Republican in the White House, the opposition typically gains seats.

In the 2016 House race for CA-26, Julia Brownley (D) defeated Rafael A. Dagnesses (R) 60.4% to 39.6%. Julia Brownley received 169,248 votes compared to 111,059 for Rafael A. Dagnesses, a dominant 20.8-point margin reflecting a safely partisan district.

As the incumbent, Julia Brownley benefited from name recognition, established constituent services, and the roughly 2-3 point advantage that sitting members typically enjoy. The 2016 presidential election drove higher voter turnout, which can help or hurt down-ballot candidates depending on the top of the ticket.

In the 2014 House race for CA-26, Julia Brownley (D) defeated Jeff Gorell (R) 51.3% to 48.7%. Julia Brownley received 87,176 votes compared to 82,653 for Jeff Gorell, a narrow 2.7-point margin that would have flipped with a small shift in turnout or persuasion.

As the incumbent, Julia Brownley benefited from name recognition, established constituent services, and the roughly 2-3 point advantage that sitting members typically enjoy. As a Democrat, Julia Brownley won despite the historical midterm penalty against the president's party (Democrat Obama was in office).

In the 2012 House race for CA-26, Julia Brownley (D) defeated Tony Strickland (R) 52.7% to 47.3%. Julia Brownley received 139,072 votes compared to 124,863 for Tony Strickland, a 5.4-point margin that indicates a genuinely contested race.

This was an open-seat race. Open seats typically attract stronger candidates and heavier spending from both parties. The 2012 presidential election drove higher voter turnout, which can help or hurt down-ballot candidates depending on the top of the ticket.