John R. Carter

In the 2024 House race for TX-31, John Carter (R) defeated Stuart Whitlow (D) 64.4% to 35.6%. John Carter received 229,087 votes compared to 126,470 for Stuart Whitlow, a dominant 28.9-point margin reflecting a safely partisan district.

As the incumbent, John Carter benefited from name recognition, established constituent services, and the roughly 2-3 point advantage that sitting members typically enjoy. The 2024 presidential election drove higher voter turnout, which can help or hurt down-ballot candidates depending on the top of the ticket. The wide margin suggests this district is firmly in the Republican column for the foreseeable future.

In the 2022 House race for TX-31, John Carter (R) ran unopposed and received 183,185 votes. Running without a challenger is rare and usually indicates either a safe party stronghold or that the opposition could not field a candidate.

As the incumbent, John Carter benefited from name recognition, established constituent services, and the roughly 2-3 point advantage that sitting members typically enjoy. As a Republican, John Carter benefited from the historical midterm penalty against the president's party — with a Democrat in the White House, the opposition typically gains seats.

In the 2020 House race for TX-31, John Carter (R) won with 53.4% of the vote, defeating Donna Imam (D) who received 44.3%. 2 additional candidates split the remaining vote. John Carter's 9.1-point lead over the runner-up showed solid but not overwhelming support.

As the incumbent, John Carter benefited from name recognition, established constituent services, and the roughly 2-3 point advantage that sitting members typically enjoy. The 2020 presidential election drove higher voter turnout, which can help or hurt down-ballot candidates depending on the top of the ticket. This seat will likely stay on party watch lists as potentially competitive in future cycles.

In the 2018 House race for TX-31, John Carter (R) won with 50.6% of the vote, defeating Mary Jennings Mj Hegar (D) who received 47.7%. A third candidate also appeared on the ballot. The 2.9-point margin made this one of the more competitive races of the cycle.

As the incumbent, John Carter benefited from name recognition, established constituent services, and the roughly 2-3 point advantage that sitting members typically enjoy. As a Republican, John Carter won despite the historical midterm penalty against the president's party (Republican Trump was in office).

In the 2016 House race for TX-31, John R. Carter (R) won with 58.4% of the vote, defeating Mike Clark (D) who received 36.5%. A third candidate also appeared on the ballot. John R. Carter's 21.9-point advantage over the runner-up confirmed a comfortable win.

As the incumbent, John R. Carter benefited from name recognition, established constituent services, and the roughly 2-3 point advantage that sitting members typically enjoy. The 2016 presidential election drove higher voter turnout, which can help or hurt down-ballot candidates depending on the top of the ticket.

In the 2014 House race for TX-31, John R. Carter (R) won with 64.0% of the vote, defeating Louie Minor (D) who received 32.0%. A third candidate also appeared on the ballot. John R. Carter's 32.1-point advantage over the runner-up confirmed a comfortable win.

As the incumbent, John R. Carter benefited from name recognition, established constituent services, and the roughly 2-3 point advantage that sitting members typically enjoy. As a Republican, John R. Carter benefited from the historical midterm penalty against the president's party — with a Democrat in the White House, the opposition typically gains seats.

In the 2012 House race for TX-31, John R. Carter (R) won with 61.3% of the vote, defeating Stephen M. Wyman (D) who received 35.0%. A third candidate also appeared on the ballot. John R. Carter's 26.3-point advantage over the runner-up confirmed a comfortable win.

This was an open-seat race. Open seats typically attract stronger candidates and heavier spending from both parties. The 2012 presidential election drove higher voter turnout, which can help or hurt down-ballot candidates depending on the top of the ticket.