Andrew R. Garbarino

In the 2024 House race for NY-2, Andrew R. Garbarino (R) won with 53.2% of the vote, defeating Rob Lubin (D) who received 38.3%. 5 additional candidates split the remaining vote. Andrew R. Garbarino's 14.9-point lead over the runner-up showed solid but not overwhelming support.

As the incumbent, Andrew R. Garbarino benefited from name recognition, established constituent services, and the roughly 2-3 point advantage that sitting members typically enjoy. The 2024 presidential election drove higher voter turnout, which can help or hurt down-ballot candidates depending on the top of the ticket.

In the 2022 House race for NY-2, Andrew R. Garbarino (R) won with 52.5% of the vote, defeating Jackie Gordon (D) who received 37.5%. 5 additional candidates split the remaining vote. Andrew R. Garbarino's 15.1-point advantage over the runner-up confirmed a comfortable win.

As the incumbent, Andrew R. Garbarino benefited from name recognition, established constituent services, and the roughly 2-3 point advantage that sitting members typically enjoy. As a Republican, Andrew R. Garbarino benefited from the historical midterm penalty against the president's party — with a Democrat in the White House, the opposition typically gains seats.

In the 2020 House race for NY-2, Andrew R. Garbarino (R) won with 47.2% of the vote, defeating Jackie Gordon (D) who received 43.2%. 9 additional candidates split the remaining vote. The 4.0-point margin made this one of the more competitive races of the cycle.

This was an open-seat race. Open seats typically attract stronger candidates and heavier spending from both parties. The 2020 presidential election drove higher voter turnout, which can help or hurt down-ballot candidates depending on the top of the ticket. This seat will likely stay on party watch lists as potentially competitive in future cycles.