Josh Hawley

In the 2024 Senate race for MO Senate seat, Josh Hawley (R) won with 55.6% of the vote, defeating Lucas Kunce (D) who received 41.8%. 4 additional candidates split the remaining vote. Josh Hawley's 13.7-point lead over the runner-up showed solid but not overwhelming support.

This was an open-seat race with no incumbent running — Eric Schmitt (R) previously held the seat. Open seats typically attract stronger candidates and heavier spending from both parties. The 2024 presidential election drove higher voter turnout, which can help or hurt down-ballot candidates depending on the top of the ticket.

In the 2018 Senate race for MO Senate seat, Josh Hawley (R) won with 51.4% of the vote, defeating Claire Mccaskill (D) who received 45.6%. 3 additional candidates split the remaining vote. Josh Hawley's 5.8-point lead over the runner-up showed solid but not overwhelming support.

Josh Hawley defeated the incumbent Claire Mccaskill (D), which is a significant political event — most incumbents win re-election by wide margins. This was a general election upset. As a Republican, Josh Hawley won despite the historical midterm penalty against the president's party (Republican Trump was in office).