Josh Harder

In the 2024 House race for CA-9, Josh Harder (D) defeated Kevin Lincoln (R) 51.8% to 48.2%. Josh Harder received 130,183 votes compared to 121,174 for Kevin Lincoln, a narrow 3.6-point margin that would have flipped with a small shift in turnout or persuasion.

As the incumbent, Josh Harder benefited from name recognition, established constituent services, and the roughly 2-3 point advantage that sitting members typically enjoy. The 2024 presidential election drove higher voter turnout, which can help or hurt down-ballot candidates depending on the top of the ticket. This seat will likely stay on party watch lists as potentially competitive in future cycles.

In the 2022 House race for CA-9, Josh Harder (D) defeated Tom Patti (R) 54.8% to 45.2%. Josh Harder received 95,598 votes compared to 78,802 for Tom Patti, a 9.6-point margin that indicates a genuinely contested race.

This was an open-seat race with no incumbent running — Jerry McNerney (D) previously held the seat. Open seats typically attract stronger candidates and heavier spending from both parties. As a Democrat, Josh Harder won despite the historical midterm penalty against the president's party (Democrat Biden was in office). This seat will likely stay on party watch lists as potentially competitive in future cycles.

In the 2018 House race for CA-10, Josh Harder (D) defeated Jeff Denham (R) 52.3% to 47.8%. Josh Harder received 231,890 votes compared to 211,910 for Jeff Denham, a narrow 4.5-point margin that would have flipped with a small shift in turnout or persuasion.

Josh Harder defeated the incumbent Jeff Denham (R), which is a significant political event — most incumbents win re-election by wide margins. This was a general election upset. As a Democrat, Josh Harder benefited from the historical midterm penalty against the president's party — with a Republican in the White House, the opposition typically gains seats.