Sara Jacobs

In the 2024 House race for CA-51, Sara Jacobs (D) defeated Bill Wells (R) 60.7% to 39.3%. Sara Jacobs received 198,835 votes compared to 128,749 for Bill Wells, a dominant 21.4-point margin reflecting a safely partisan district.

As the incumbent, Sara Jacobs benefited from name recognition, established constituent services, and the roughly 2-3 point advantage that sitting members typically enjoy. The 2024 presidential election drove higher voter turnout, which can help or hurt down-ballot candidates depending on the top of the ticket.

In the 2022 House race for CA-51, Sara Jacobs (D) defeated Stan Caplan (R) 61.9% to 38.1%. Sara Jacobs received 144,186 votes compared to 88,886 for Stan Caplan, a dominant 23.7-point margin reflecting a safely partisan district.

This was an open-seat race with no incumbent running — Juan Vargas (D) previously held the seat. Open seats typically attract stronger candidates and heavier spending from both parties. As a Democrat, Sara Jacobs won despite the historical midterm penalty against the president's party (Democrat Biden was in office).