Tim Kaine

In the 2024 Senate race for VA Senate seat, Timothy Michael Kaine (D) won with 54.4% of the vote, defeating Hung Cao (R) who received 45.4%. A third candidate also appeared on the ballot. Timothy Michael Kaine's 8.9-point lead over the runner-up showed solid but not overwhelming support.

This was an open-seat race with no incumbent running — Mark R. Warner (D) previously held the seat. Open seats typically attract stronger candidates and heavier spending from both parties. The 2024 presidential election drove higher voter turnout, which can help or hurt down-ballot candidates depending on the top of the ticket. This seat will likely stay on party watch lists as potentially competitive in future cycles.

In the 2018 Senate race for VA Senate seat, Timothy M. Kaine (D) won with 57.0% of the vote, defeating Corey A. Stewart (R) who received 41.0%. A third candidate also appeared on the ballot. Timothy M. Kaine's 16.0-point advantage over the runner-up confirmed a comfortable win.

As the incumbent, Timothy M. Kaine benefited from name recognition, established constituent services, and the roughly 2-3 point advantage that sitting members typically enjoy. As a Democrat, Timothy M. Kaine benefited from the historical midterm penalty against the president's party — with a Republican in the White House, the opposition typically gains seats.

In the 2012 Senate race for VA Senate seat, Timothy M. Kaine (D) defeated George F. Allen (R) 52.9% to 47.0%. Timothy M. Kaine received 2,010,067 votes compared to 1,785,542 for George F. Allen, a 5.9-point margin that indicates a genuinely contested race.

This was an open-seat race. Open seats typically attract stronger candidates and heavier spending from both parties. The 2012 presidential election drove higher voter turnout, which can help or hurt down-ballot candidates depending on the top of the ticket.