Kevin Kiley

In the 2024 House race for CA-3, Kevin Kiley (R) defeated Jessica Morse (D) 55.5% to 44.5%. Kevin Kiley received 234,246 votes compared to 188,067 for Jessica Morse, a comfortable 10.9-point margin indicating a moderately safe district.

As the incumbent, Kevin Kiley benefited from name recognition, established constituent services, and the roughly 2-3 point advantage that sitting members typically enjoy. The 2024 presidential election drove higher voter turnout, which can help or hurt down-ballot candidates depending on the top of the ticket.

In the 2022 House race for CA-3, Kevin Kiley (R) defeated Kermit Jones (D) 53.6% to 46.4%. Kevin Kiley received 181,438 votes compared to 156,761 for Kermit Jones, a 7.3-point margin that indicates a genuinely contested race.

This race flipped the seat from Democrat to Republican. John Garamendi (D) held the seat previously but either retired or lost in a primary. Party flips at the seat level are relatively rare and often signal shifting district dynamics. As a Republican, Kevin Kiley benefited from the historical midterm penalty against the president's party — with a Democrat in the White House, the opposition typically gains seats. This seat will likely stay on party watch lists as potentially competitive in future cycles.