David McCormick

In the 2024 Senate race for PA Senate seat, Dave McCormick (R) won with 48.8% of the vote, defeating Robert P. Casey Jr. (D) who received 48.6%. 3 additional candidates split the remaining vote. The 0.2-point margin made this one of the more competitive races of the cycle.

This race flipped the seat from Democrat to Republican. John Fetterman (D) held the seat previously but either retired or lost in a primary. Party flips at the seat level are relatively rare and often signal shifting district dynamics. The 2024 presidential election drove higher voter turnout, which can help or hurt down-ballot candidates depending on the top of the ticket. Given the narrow margin, this seat is likely to remain competitive and attract heavy investment in the next cycle.