Jay Obernolte

In the 2024 House race for CA-23, Jay Obernolte (R) defeated Derek Marshall (D) 60.1% to 39.9%. Jay Obernolte received 159,286 votes compared to 105,563 for Derek Marshall, a dominant 20.3-point margin reflecting a safely partisan district.

As the incumbent, Jay Obernolte benefited from name recognition, established constituent services, and the roughly 2-3 point advantage that sitting members typically enjoy. The 2024 presidential election drove higher voter turnout, which can help or hurt down-ballot candidates depending on the top of the ticket.

In the 2022 House race for CA-23, Jay Obernolte (R) defeated Derek Marshall (D) 61.0% to 39.0%. Jay Obernolte received 103,197 votes compared to 65,908 for Derek Marshall, a dominant 22.1-point margin reflecting a safely partisan district.

This was an open-seat race with no incumbent running — Kevin McCarthy (R) previously held the seat. Open seats typically attract stronger candidates and heavier spending from both parties. As a Republican, Jay Obernolte benefited from the historical midterm penalty against the president's party — with a Democrat in the White House, the opposition typically gains seats.