Thomas R. Suozzi

In the 2024 House race for NY-3, Thomas R. Suozzi (D) won with 51.1% of the vote, defeating Michael J. LiPetri Jr. (R) who received 44.4%. 5 additional candidates split the remaining vote. Thomas R. Suozzi's 6.7-point lead over the runner-up showed solid but not overwhelming support.

This race flipped the seat from Republican to Democrat. George A.D. Santos (R) held the seat previously but either retired or lost in a primary. Party flips at the seat level are relatively rare and often signal shifting district dynamics. The 2024 presidential election drove higher voter turnout, which can help or hurt down-ballot candidates depending on the top of the ticket. This seat will likely stay on party watch lists as potentially competitive in future cycles.

In the 2020 House race for NY-3, Thomas R. Suozzi (D) won with 52.6% of the vote, defeating George A.D. Santos (R) who received 39.6%. 7 additional candidates split the remaining vote. Thomas R. Suozzi's 13.0-point lead over the runner-up showed solid but not overwhelming support.

This was an open-seat race. Open seats typically attract stronger candidates and heavier spending from both parties. The 2020 presidential election drove higher voter turnout, which can help or hurt down-ballot candidates depending on the top of the ticket.

In the 2018 House race for NY-03, Thomas R. Suozzi (D) defeated Dan P. Debono (R) 56.1% to 37.0%. Thomas R. Suozzi received 149,937 votes compared to 98,716 for Dan P. Debono, a comfortable 19.2-point margin indicating a moderately safe district.

This was an open-seat race. Open seats typically attract stronger candidates and heavier spending from both parties. As a Democrat, Thomas R. Suozzi benefited from the historical midterm penalty against the president's party — with a Republican in the White House, the opposition typically gains seats.