Jill N. Tokuda

In the 2024 House race for HI-2, Jill N. Tokuda (D) won with 66.5% of the vote, defeating Steve Bond (R) who received 30.2%. 4 additional candidates split the remaining vote. Jill N. Tokuda's 36.3-point advantage over the runner-up confirmed a comfortable win.

As the incumbent, Jill N. Tokuda benefited from name recognition, established constituent services, and the roughly 2-3 point advantage that sitting members typically enjoy. The 2024 presidential election drove higher voter turnout, which can help or hurt down-ballot candidates depending on the top of the ticket. The wide margin suggests this district is firmly in the Democrat column for the foreseeable future.

In the 2022 House race for HI-2, Jill N. Tokuda (D) won with 62.2% of the vote, defeating Joe Akana (R) who received 35.3%. 3 additional candidates split the remaining vote. Jill N. Tokuda's 26.9-point advantage over the runner-up confirmed a comfortable win.

This was an open-seat race with no incumbent running — Kaiali'i Kahele (D) previously held the seat. Open seats typically attract stronger candidates and heavier spending from both parties. As a Democrat, Jill N. Tokuda won despite the historical midterm penalty against the president's party (Democrat Biden was in office). The wide margin suggests this district is firmly in the Democrat column for the foreseeable future.